Baseball picks are different from other sports picks for one big reason: No point spreads are offered. Your baseball picks either win or lose outright. For this reason, many bettors actually prefer wagering on professional baseball picks to all other sports picks.
Major League Baseball (MLB) is comprised of 30 teams, 16 in the National League and 14 in the American League. Each league is further subdivided into three divisions, East, Central and West, with five teams per division, except the NL Central with six teams and the AL West, which has only four. The regular season runs from April through September, with a brief preseason in March and league playoffs followed by the MLB World Series championship in October.
The most important aspect of MLB picks is the role that pitchers play. A good pitcher on a good team will win 18 or more games in a season and lose only a handful. If you consistently base your baseball picks on winning pitchers, you cannot lose. Team batting, weather conditions and where the game is played, all take second seat to pitching.
That said, when good pitchers are evenly matched, there are other factors you should examine in handicapping your baseball picks. Streaks are very common, both winning and losing. Umpires can make a difference, both good and bad. Field conditions are important, not only wind and rain, but the type of surface being played on. Night games suit some teams better that day games. There is a lot to study in evaluating baseball picks.
Many professional bettors say that the MLB regular season is actually three seasons in one. In April-May, the early season, underdogs tend to do well, as do pitchers.
In June-July, teams and batters hit their stride. And in August-September, the favorites ignite, as winners win and losers slump. Your baseball picks should vary accordingly.
Also, consider the importance of umpires in the game. Early in the season, some allow rather wide strike zones, which favor pitchers with less control. An umpire who calls a smaller strike zone will force pitchers to yield more balls than can be hit. Not only can the size of the strike zone affect who wins, it can have a huge impact on the over-under for games, favoring the under when wide and the over when narrow. As you can see, there is more to look at in MLB picks than the players alone.
Statistically, favored teams win 60% of the time. Without a spread to contend with, you should be able to choose six winners out of every ten MLB picks, for slow by steady winnings. But the house isn’t about to let you walk away with their money so easily. Bookmakers use the money line to adjust odds in their favor. Instead of true odds, they will offer +135/-145 or +185/-210. This is their hedge against sharp betting and limits your winnings to some degree.
That’s why, instead of settling for small gains on the money line, many professional handicappers prefer to play parlays. Parlays allow you to bet on three or more baseball picks as a single wager. If all of your MLB picks succeed, your payout at least 6 to 1 (for three out of three) and perhaps as high as 320 to one (for nine out of nine). Careful selection of the right baseball picks two or three times out of every four parlay wagers, will yield more profit for less outlay than betting teams straight up.
Another aspect of baseball picks you should study is futures. Before the season starts, you can often get great odds on good teams to win their league pennants and the World Series. Look for shifts in future odds throughout the season. Sometimes good baseball picks are underrated early, while other MLB picks present an opening for profit before hitting their upward trend.
